NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VMI SAM
Points 65.2 93.7
Total Points   158.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 45.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 31.1
Points From Free Throws 13.3 17.1
Shooting VMI SAM
Field Goals Made 23.0 33.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 62.8
Field Goal % 40.3% 52.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 61.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 40.7%
Free Throws Made 13.3 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 24.2
Free Throw % 70.4% 70.7%
Ball Control VMI SAM
Rebounds 32.8 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 9.6
Turnovers 18.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.0
Steals 5.6 11.3
Fouls 17.5 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VMI SAM
Total Possessions 78.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 77.7
% of Possessions with VMI SAM
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 28.5%
Player Fouled 20.2% 22.2%
Turnover 23.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 14.3% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken VMI SAM
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 28.5%