NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF AUB
Points 63.9 75.2
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 28.5 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 14.8 22.1
Points From Free Throws 20.6 20.8
Shooting UCF AUB
Field Goals Made 19.2 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 53.4
Field Goal % 33.9% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 36.0% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 20.6 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 30.0 27.8
Free Throw % 68.6% 74.8%
Ball Control UCF AUB
Rebounds 38.0 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 9.4
Turnovers 11.4 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.0 5.6
Steals 7.8 6.2
Fouls 18.8 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF AUB
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.7 70.1
% of Possessions with UCF AUB
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.2% 24.8%
Player Fouled 24.8% 26.0%
Turnover 15.8% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF AUB
Shot Blocked 10.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 27.9%