NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA UCI
Points 64.9 74.4
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 49.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 12.2
Points From Free Throws 15.1 13.2
Shooting CALBA UCI
Field Goals Made 21.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 57.9
Field Goal % 38.6% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 24.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 46.6
2 Point Shooting % 40.6% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 4.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 11.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 15.1 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 17.5
Free Throw % 69.6% 75.7%
Ball Control CALBA UCI
Rebounds 34.3 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 7.9
Turnovers 10.0 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.6
Steals 3.2 4.7
Fouls 15.2 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA UCI
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 68.4
% of Possessions with CALBA UCI
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 59.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 14.5%
Player Fouled 23.7% 21.9%
Turnover 14.5% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA UCI
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 24.8%