NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LONG PRE
Points 74.0 71.0
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 20.7
Points From Free Throws 17.9 13.5
Shooting LONG PRE
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 51.8
Field Goal % 47.4% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 14.1 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 17.9 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 26.1 20.4
Free Throw % 68.6% 66.0%
Ball Control LONG PRE
Rebounds 35.1 28.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 6.8
Turnovers 11.3 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.0
Steals 6.7 6.5
Fouls 17.4 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Presbyterian

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LONG PRE
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 64.3
% of Possessions with LONG PRE
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 17.1% 25.4%
Player Fouled 25.4% 24.9%
Turnover 16.2% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LONG PRE
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 34.5% 22.1%