NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA CHS
Points 69.2 63.7
Total Points   132.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 13.3
Points From Free Throws 15.0 12.9
Shooting CALBA CHS
Field Goals Made 23.9 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 54.6
Field Goal % 44.1% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 4.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 14.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 15.0 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 18.2
Free Throw % 69.6% 70.5%
Ball Control CALBA CHS
Rebounds 38.4 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 20.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.2
Steals 3.6 6.2
Fouls 13.9 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA CHS
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 65.9
% of Possessions with CALBA CHS
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 18.5%
Player Fouled 24.1% 20.8%
Turnover 17.1% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA CHS
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 38.4% 26.2%