NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA TST
Points 66.9 71.8
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 45.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 14.7
Points From Free Throws 13.8 11.9
Shooting CALBA TST
Field Goals Made 23.3 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 58.5
Field Goal % 40.6% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 44.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 14.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 13.8 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 15.7
Free Throw % 69.6% 75.8%
Ball Control CALBA TST
Rebounds 38.1 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 7.7
Turnovers 11.0 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.0
Steals 3.0 6.2
Fouls 13.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA TST
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 67.9
% of Possessions with CALBA TST
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 58.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 18.3%
Player Fouled 22.2% 20.4%
Turnover 16.2% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 4.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA TST
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 34.4% 23.2%