NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA USD
Points 69.8 69.5
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 16.0
Points From Free Throws 18.1 12.5
Shooting CALBA USD
Field Goals Made 22.4 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 56.9
Field Goal % 40.1% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 14.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 18.1 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 26.0 17.3
Free Throw % 69.6% 72.1%
Ball Control CALBA USD
Rebounds 38.5 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 7.4
Turnovers 10.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.4
Steals 4.4 5.7
Fouls 14.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA USD
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 67.4
% of Possessions with CALBA USD
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 53.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 18.4%
Player Fouled 24.8% 20.3%
Turnover 15.5% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA USD
Shot Blocked 7.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 22.0%