NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA UVU
Points 63.8 66.3
Total Points   130.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 11.5
Points From Free Throws 14.7 11.4
Shooting CALBA UVU
Field Goals Made 21.5 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 57.1
Field Goal % 38.1% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 44.3
2 Point Shooting % 41.2% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 3.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 12.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 14.7 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 17.5
Free Throw % 69.6% 65.3%
Ball Control CALBA UVU
Rebounds 37.5 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 7.8
Turnovers 10.4 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.0
Steals 3.9 5.2
Fouls 14.9 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Utah Valley

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA UVU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 67.6
% of Possessions with CALBA UVU
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 57.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 16.5%
Player Fouled 23.3% 21.7%
Turnover 15.1% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA UVU
Shot Blocked 8.8% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 22.4%