NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIU DEN
Points 74.9 72.3
Total Points   147.2
Points From 2-Pointers 43.7 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 22.2
Points From Free Throws 13.1 12.5
Shooting WIU DEN
Field Goals Made 27.9 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 64.1
Field Goal % 44.8% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.4 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 13.1 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 17.7
Free Throw % 62.4% 70.7%
Ball Control WIU DEN
Rebounds 44.9 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 30.2 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.7 9.8
Turnovers 10.4 7.5
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.0
Steals 3.8 6.4
Fouls 13.8 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: W Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIU DEN
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 73.5
% of Possessions with WIU DEN
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 19.2% 27.3%
Player Fouled 20.8% 19.3%
Turnover 14.6% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIU DEN
Shot Blocked 6.4% 10.0%
Offensive Rebound 38.0% 24.5%