NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAF HC
Points 68.1 62.9
Total Points   131.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 22.3
Points From Free Throws 9.7 10.0
Shooting LAF HC
Field Goals Made 24.8 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 55.2
Field Goal % 42.5% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 43.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 9.7 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 15.1
Free Throw % 68.2% 66.3%
Ball Control LAF HC
Rebounds 35.1 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 7.5
Turnovers 7.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.4
Steals 5.8 3.4
Fouls 12.7 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAF HC
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 63.9
% of Possessions with LAF HC
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 27.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 19.3%
Turnover 10.8% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAF HC
Shot Blocked 6.3% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 21.6%