NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAF DREX
Points 59.5 68.9
Total Points   128.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 19.4
Points From Free Throws 8.2 14.0
Shooting LAF DREX
Field Goals Made 22.6 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 57.2
Field Goal % 38.5% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 8.2 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 12.0 19.7
Free Throw % 68.2% 71.0%
Ball Control LAF DREX
Rebounds 31.4 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 11.6
Turnovers 8.4 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.2
Steals 4.9 4.4
Fouls 14.7 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAF DREX
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 69.0
% of Possessions with LAF DREX
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 23.2%
Player Fouled 18.6% 22.0%
Turnover 12.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAF DREX
Shot Blocked 7.5% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 32.5%