NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAF NAVY
Points 64.9 61.8
Total Points   126.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 30.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 16.7
Points From Free Throws 10.3 15.2
Shooting LAF NAVY
Field Goals Made 23.9 20.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 57.5
Field Goal % 44.6% 35.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 38.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 10.3 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 21.4
Free Throw % 68.2% 71.0%
Ball Control LAF NAVY
Rebounds 35.2 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 12.7
Turnovers 11.3 9.2
Blocked Shots 5.8 2.4
Steals 4.4 5.2
Fouls 15.8 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAF NAVY
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 70.0
% of Possessions with LAF NAVY
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 22.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 23.8%
Turnover 17.0% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAF NAVY
Shot Blocked 4.3% 10.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 32.1%