NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMU UCD
Points 67.0 70.9
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 18.2
Points From Free Throws 13.0 14.1
Shooting LMU UCD
Field Goals Made 23.6 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 56.6
Field Goal % 42.6% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 13.0 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 18.5
Free Throw % 73.7% 76.1%
Ball Control LMU UCD
Rebounds 35.3 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.5
Turnovers 11.3 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.9
Steals 3.5 6.1
Fouls 15.1 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMU UCD
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 67.7
% of Possessions with LMU UCD
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 24.1%
Player Fouled 22.0% 22.5%
Turnover 16.7% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMU UCD
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 25.5%