NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMU SF
Points 64.2 76.0
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 28.8 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 22.3
Points From Free Throws 13.2 10.1
Shooting LMU SF
Field Goals Made 21.8 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 60.3
Field Goal % 40.9% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.2 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 13.6
Free Throw % 73.7% 74.2%
Ball Control LMU SF
Rebounds 31.9 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.9
Turnovers 11.0 7.2
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.4
Steals 2.8 6.2
Fouls 12.9 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: San Francisco

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMU SF
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 68.8
% of Possessions with LMU SF
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 28.0%
Player Fouled 22.4% 19.2%
Turnover 16.4% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 4.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMU SF
Shot Blocked 7.4% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 27.1%