NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL BELL
Points 76.6 71.4
Total Points   148.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 21.0
Points From Free Throws 16.1 12.8
Shooting NORAL BELL
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 58.7
Field Goal % 45.5% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 16.1 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 16.9
Free Throw % 77.2% 75.6%
Ball Control NORAL BELL
Rebounds 37.1 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 6.3
Turnovers 8.2 7.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 1.9
Steals 3.7 3.7
Fouls 14.2 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL BELL
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 68.5
% of Possessions with NORAL BELL
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 26.2%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.3%
Turnover 11.7% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL BELL
Shot Blocked 3.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 18.1%