NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SELA XAV
Points 64.5 83.2
Total Points   147.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 27.2
Points From Free Throws 12.3 15.6
Shooting SELA XAV
Field Goals Made 22.8 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 59.7
Field Goal % 39.2% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 12.3 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 20.5
Free Throw % 74.0% 75.8%
Ball Control SELA XAV
Rebounds 31.7 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 10.9
Turnovers 12.4 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.3
Steals 5.7 6.7
Fouls 16.0 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SELA XAV
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 72.6
% of Possessions with SELA XAV
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 29.8%
Player Fouled 18.7% 22.3%
Turnover 17.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SELA XAV
Shot Blocked 5.7% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 32.9%