NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMU CSU
Points 63.1 75.6
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 19.2
Points From Free Throws 11.3 12.9
Shooting LMU CSU
Field Goals Made 22.7 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 55.8
Field Goal % 40.0% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 11.3 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 17.3
Free Throw % 73.7% 74.7%
Ball Control LMU CSU
Rebounds 33.1 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 6.8
Turnovers 9.3 6.3
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.5
Steals 2.6 4.7
Fouls 15.0 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMU CSU
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 66.0
% of Possessions with LMU CSU
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 25.7%
Player Fouled 20.1% 23.0%
Turnover 14.2% 9.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 3.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMU CSU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 22.7%