NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL GT
Points 69.1 81.9
Total Points   151.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 23.8
Points From Free Throws 14.6 18.3
Shooting NORAL GT
Field Goals Made 23.6 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 58.6
Field Goal % 38.2% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.9% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 14.6 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 24.9
Free Throw % 77.2% 73.6%
Ball Control NORAL GT
Rebounds 32.3 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.0
Turnovers 7.6 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.3
Steals 4.5 3.5
Fouls 16.6 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL GT
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 73.8
% of Possessions with NORAL GT
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 25.9%
Player Fouled 20.3% 23.3%
Turnover 10.7% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL GT
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 31.8%