NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM NMSU
Points 83.0 61.5
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 42.1 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 16.5
Points From Free Throws 19.9 11.8
Shooting UNM NMSU
Field Goals Made 28.0 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 59.1
Field Goal % 46.0% 37.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 42.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 27.1%
Free Throws Made 19.9 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 27.6 18.0
Free Throw % 72.3% 65.5%
Ball Control UNM NMSU
Rebounds 43.7 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 31.0 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 9.1
Turnovers 7.4 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.2
Steals 7.8 4.5
Fouls 13.6 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM NMSU
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 77.5 69.8
% of Possessions with UNM NMSU
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 24.5%
Player Fouled 24.9% 18.8%
Turnover 10.3% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM NMSU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 34.2% 22.7%