NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM BSU
Points 74.4 72.7
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 44.9 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 21.4
Points From Free Throws 14.4 15.5
Shooting UNM BSU
Field Goals Made 27.5 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 59.2
Field Goal % 46.1% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 14.4 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 20.9
Free Throw % 72.3% 74.3%
Ball Control UNM BSU
Rebounds 34.6 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 11.0
Turnovers 8.8 10.9
Blocked Shots 5.4 3.0
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 14.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM BSU
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 71.4
% of Possessions with UNM BSU
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 26.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 20.8%
Turnover 12.4% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM BSU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 30.0%