NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM UTEP
Points 81.4 62.5
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 47.7 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 13.9
Points From Free Throws 19.3 15.1
Shooting UNM UTEP
Field Goals Made 28.7 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 55.3
Field Goal % 51.7% 38.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.8 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.9% 43.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 28.0%
Free Throws Made 19.3 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.7 22.2
Free Throw % 72.3% 68.0%
Ball Control UNM UTEP
Rebounds 39.0 29.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 19.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.5
Turnovers 13.3 15.5
Blocked Shots 6.2 2.8
Steals 8.9 9.0
Fouls 16.0 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +1.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM UTEP
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 68.6
% of Possessions with UNM UTEP
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.3% 19.2%
Player Fouled 24.4% 21.4%
Turnover 17.8% 20.8%
Opponent Steal 12.1% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM UTEP
Shot Blocked 5.2% 11.3%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 25.5%