NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TEX ISU
Points 67.2 69.6
Total Points   136.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 17.8
Points From Free Throws 12.9 14.1
Shooting TEX ISU
Field Goals Made 23.7 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 57.4
Field Goal % 44.6% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 12.9 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 19.9
Free Throw % 76.5% 70.8%
Ball Control TEX ISU
Rebounds 34.5 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 10.2
Turnovers 13.8 9.7
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.3
Steals 5.8 8.1
Fouls 15.9 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TEX ISU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 69.3
% of Possessions with TEX ISU
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 51.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 20.2%
Player Fouled 20.6% 23.1%
Turnover 20.1% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TEX ISU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 28.6%