NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TEX IND
Points 73.1 67.7
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 13.7
Points From Free Throws 13.3 13.9
Shooting TEX IND
Field Goals Made 26.1 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 54.3
Field Goal % 42.5% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 13.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 13.3 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 21.1
Free Throw % 76.5% 65.9%
Ball Control TEX IND
Rebounds 35.3 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.5
Turnovers 8.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.5
Steals 7.4 4.2
Fouls 16.7 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TEX IND
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 67.0
% of Possessions with TEX IND
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 17.2%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.7%
Turnover 12.4% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TEX IND
Shot Blocked 6.5% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 25.2%