NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAU UNCO
Points 72.0 81.1
Total Points   153.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 49.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 18.3
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.4
Shooting NAU UNCO
Field Goals Made 26.5 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 59.9
Field Goal % 44.4% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 18.0
Free Throw % 69.2% 74.6%
Ball Control NAU UNCO
Rebounds 32.0 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 7.3
Turnovers 10.3 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.3
Steals 5.1 6.4
Fouls 14.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAU UNCO
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 70.5
% of Possessions with NAU UNCO
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 23.1%
Player Fouled 20.4% 19.8%
Turnover 14.2% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAU UNCO
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 23.0%