NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAU PAC
Points 75.8 68.7
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 13.9
Points From Free Throws 14.5 16.2
Shooting NAU PAC
Field Goals Made 27.0 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 52.9
Field Goal % 47.5% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 14.5 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 24.9
Free Throw % 69.2% 65.1%
Ball Control NAU PAC
Rebounds 36.7 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 6.7
Turnovers 10.4 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.0
Steals 4.8 6.0
Fouls 18.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAU PAC
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 67.6
% of Possessions with NAU PAC
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 20.0%
Player Fouled 22.0% 25.9%
Turnover 14.6% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAU PAC
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 19.6%