NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAU UVU
Points 64.1 72.8
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 11.7
Points From Free Throws 12.6 15.9
Shooting NAU UVU
Field Goals Made 22.9 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 58.0
Field Goal % 40.8% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 43.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 3.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 14.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 26.5%
Free Throws Made 12.6 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 24.3
Free Throw % 69.2% 65.3%
Ball Control NAU UVU
Rebounds 32.7 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 11.0
Turnovers 12.2 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.2
Steals 5.2 7.4
Fouls 16.6 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Utah Valley

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAU UVU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 72.7
% of Possessions with NAU UVU
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 17.6%
Player Fouled 22.1% 23.2%
Turnover 17.0% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAU UVU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 30.5%