NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW UNLV
Points 67.3 75.3
Total Points   142.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.0 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 25.6 18.7
Points From Free Throws 10.8 15.6
Shooting PFW UNLV
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 53.0
Field Goal % 40.1% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 10.8 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 21.4
Free Throw % 71.8% 73.0%
Ball Control PFW UNLV
Rebounds 29.5 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.1
Turnovers 10.3 12.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.1
Steals 7.4 5.0
Fouls 15.7 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW UNLV
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 66.2
% of Possessions with PFW UNLV
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 22.2%
Player Fouled 17.7% 22.1%
Turnover 14.5% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW UNLV
Shot Blocked 7.8% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 27.3%