NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM NDSU
Points 73.7 74.2
Total Points   148.0
Points From 2-Pointers 42.1 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 25.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 13.0
Shooting NEOM NDSU
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 53.9
Field Goal % 47.7% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 39.2%
Free Throws Made 15.2 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 17.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 74.1%
Ball Control NEOM NDSU
Rebounds 30.5 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 6.5
Turnovers 7.4 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.0
Steals 5.2 3.1
Fouls 15.2 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM NDSU
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 64.5
% of Possessions with NEOM NDSU
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 28.1%
Player Fouled 21.7% 22.2%
Turnover 10.8% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 4.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 21.6%