NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA OKST
Points 74.7 73.4
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 23.7
Points From Free Throws 13.7 17.9
Shooting UTA OKST
Field Goals Made 26.5 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 53.6
Field Goal % 45.7% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 30.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 13.7 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 25.2
Free Throw % 73.6% 71.2%
Ball Control UTA OKST
Rebounds 35.1 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 8.9
Turnovers 13.0 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.9
Steals 7.8 6.3
Fouls 18.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA OKST
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 69.0
% of Possessions with UTA OKST
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 36.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 22.0% 25.6%
Turnover 17.9% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA OKST
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 26.3%