NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNT USM
Points 71.2 61.5
Total Points   132.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 29.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 17.3
Points From Free Throws 14.1 14.4
Shooting UNT USM
Field Goals Made 24.4 20.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 51.3
Field Goal % 42.1% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 43.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 14.1 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 20.4
Free Throw % 75.1% 70.5%
Ball Control UNT USM
Rebounds 36.2 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.2
Turnovers 9.5 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.8
Steals 8.2 5.8
Fouls 14.5 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: North Texas

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNT USM
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 64.2
% of Possessions with UNT USM
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 21.7%
Player Fouled 20.9% 21.6%
Turnover 14.1% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 12.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNT USM
Shot Blocked 9.5% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.9% 27.1%