NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY HC
Points 69.3 68.3
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 21.3
Points From Free Throws 15.0 10.7
Shooting NAVY HC
Field Goals Made 23.7 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 52.3
Field Goal % 40.7% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.0 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 16.1
Free Throw % 71.0% 66.3%
Ball Control NAVY HC
Rebounds 34.2 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 7.1
Turnovers 6.4 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.2
Steals 5.3 2.7
Fouls 14.1 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY HC
Total Possessions 65.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 62.3
% of Possessions with NAVY HC
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 26.7%
Player Fouled 24.2% 21.6%
Turnover 9.7% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 4.1% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY HC
Shot Blocked 8.2% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 23.5%