NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY AMER
Points 64.4 68.1
Total Points   132.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 23.5
Points From Free Throws 13.2 11.8
Shooting NAVY AMER
Field Goals Made 22.5 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 50.0
Field Goal % 42.1% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 27.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 13.2 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 16.4
Free Throw % 71.0% 71.6%
Ball Control NAVY AMER
Rebounds 30.5 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 8.1
Turnovers 8.6 11.2
Blocked Shots 1.7 1.8
Steals 4.6 3.8
Fouls 15.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Navy

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY AMER
Total Possessions 63.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 60.6
% of Possessions with NAVY AMER
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 37.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 31.2%
Player Fouled 25.3% 24.6%
Turnover 13.6% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY AMER
Shot Blocked 3.6% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 28.6%