NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY MSM
Points 64.2 73.4
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 19.7
Points From Free Throws 14.2 11.5
Shooting NAVY MSM
Field Goals Made 22.2 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 54.1
Field Goal % 37.4% 51.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 40.6% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 14.2 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 16.0
Free Throw % 71.0% 71.9%
Ball Control NAVY MSM
Rebounds 31.5 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 19.9 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 9.2
Turnovers 9.5 13.4
Blocked Shots 1.9 5.2
Steals 7.2 4.4
Fouls 14.3 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY MSM
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 64.8
% of Possessions with NAVY MSM
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 23.9%
Player Fouled 21.2% 20.7%
Turnover 13.7% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY MSM
Shot Blocked 9.6% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 31.6%