NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTEP NMSU
Points 69.5 64.0
Total Points   133.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 14.4
Points From Free Throws 20.1 15.4
Shooting UTEP NMSU
Field Goals Made 21.8 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 49.4
Field Goal % 42.0% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 20.1 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 29.6 23.5
Free Throw % 68.0% 65.5%
Ball Control UTEP NMSU
Rebounds 33.9 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.8
Turnovers 11.6 15.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.1
Steals 10.5 5.9
Fouls 16.9 19.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTEP NMSU
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 64.7
% of Possessions with UTEP NMSU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 20.0%
Player Fouled 27.6% 23.7%
Turnover 16.3% 21.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 14.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTEP NMSU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 27.3%