NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HARV MASS
Points 65.4 76.4
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.0 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 22.0
Points From Free Throws 16.3 13.9
Shooting HARV MASS
Field Goals Made 21.4 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 63.3
Field Goal % 40.1% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 16.3 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 20.3
Free Throw % 69.8% 68.2%
Ball Control HARV MASS
Rebounds 33.5 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 15.2
Turnovers 12.4 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.3
Steals 5.7 7.1
Fouls 14.0 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: U Mass

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HARV MASS
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 76.4
% of Possessions with HARV MASS
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 26.7%
Player Fouled 23.6% 19.9%
Turnover 17.7% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HARV MASS
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 38.6%