NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT TROY
Points 77.3 77.5
Total Points   154.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.8 31.0
Points From 3-Pointers 30.8 29.7
Points From Free Throws 15.7 16.8
Shooting CHAT TROY
Field Goals Made 25.7 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 61.8
Field Goal % 47.2% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 27.1 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.7 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.9
Free Throw % 75.3% 73.4%
Ball Control CHAT TROY
Rebounds 36.1 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.5
Turnovers 14.2 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.1
Steals 6.3 10.2
Fouls 15.6 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT TROY
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 76.0
% of Possessions with CHAT TROY
2 Point Attempt 32.6% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 31.7%
Player Fouled 21.9% 21.3%
Turnover 19.5% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 14.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT TROY
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 31.3%