NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP TXST
Points 75.7 61.6
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 11.9
Points From Free Throws 13.9 11.1
Shooting APP TXST
Field Goals Made 28.1 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 64.2
Field Goal % 48.2% 36.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 51.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 37.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 4.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 13.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 13.9 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 15.8
Free Throw % 69.5% 70.3%
Ball Control APP TXST
Rebounds 40.9 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 31.6 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.0
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 6.4 2.5
Steals 5.9 7.1
Fouls 12.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP TXST
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 73.0
% of Possessions with APP TXST
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 59.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 15.2%
Player Fouled 20.8% 17.1%
Turnover 14.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP TXST
Shot Blocked 3.9% 11.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 25.9%