NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM BRY
Points 70.4 74.8
Total Points   145.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 24.4
Points From Free Throws 12.1 12.0
Shooting MSM BRY
Field Goals Made 25.7 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 61.7
Field Goal % 39.3% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.8% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 17.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 67.6%
Ball Control MSM BRY
Rebounds 42.2 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 6.9
Turnovers 12.7 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.6 5.2
Steals 6.8 7.6
Fouls 14.4 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Bryant

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM BRY
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 72.2
% of Possessions with MSM BRY
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 28.1%
Player Fouled 16.6% 18.8%
Turnover 16.6% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM BRY
Shot Blocked 8.6% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 18.5%