NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM LAM
Points 72.4 70.0
Total Points   142.3
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 19.8
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.0
Shooting MSM LAM
Field Goals Made 26.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 61.4
Field Goal % 45.3% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 18.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 72.1%
Ball Control MSM LAM
Rebounds 38.7 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.1
Turnovers 14.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.1
Steals 5.8 8.1
Fouls 14.1 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Lamar

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM LAM
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 72.6
% of Possessions with MSM LAM
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 23.8%
Player Fouled 18.6% 19.5%
Turnover 19.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM LAM
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 28.6%