NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM WASH
Points 71.0 83.1
Total Points   154.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 24.3
Points From Free Throws 10.8 14.8
Shooting MSM WASH
Field Goals Made 26.7 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 62.7 60.9
Field Goal % 42.5% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 10.8 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 20.6
Free Throw % 71.9% 71.5%
Ball Control MSM WASH
Rebounds 35.4 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.5
Turnovers 12.7 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 5.6 7.5
Fouls 15.9 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM WASH
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 73.2
% of Possessions with MSM WASH
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 25.4%
Player Fouled 17.4% 21.2%
Turnover 16.9% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM WASH
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 25.0%