NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM FDU
Points 79.2 68.0
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 43.9 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 22.2
Points From Free Throws 11.2 13.6
Shooting MSM FDU
Field Goals Made 30.0 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 61.1
Field Goal % 50.1% 38.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 42.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 11.2 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 19.7
Free Throw % 71.9% 69.4%
Ball Control MSM FDU
Rebounds 42.2 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 31.9 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.8
Turnovers 14.6 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.1
Steals 5.9 9.4
Fouls 14.4 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: F Dickinson

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM FDU
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 72.8
% of Possessions with MSM FDU
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 27.3%
Player Fouled 18.7% 19.2%
Turnover 19.5% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM FDU
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.9% 21.7%