NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM VCU
Points 59.9 73.5
Total Points   133.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 26.5
Points From Free Throws 10.3 14.7
Shooting MSM VCU
Field Goals Made 21.8 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 55.5
Field Goal % 38.5% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.3% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 10.3 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 19.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 77.2%
Ball Control MSM VCU
Rebounds 33.7 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.5
Turnovers 12.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.9
Steals 6.0 8.6
Fouls 13.9 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: VCU

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM VCU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 67.3
% of Possessions with MSM VCU
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 29.9%
Player Fouled 17.9% 20.1%
Turnover 18.7% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM VCU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 25.8%