NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP UNCG
Points 74.9 68.2
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 28.5
Points From Free Throws 13.9 8.5
Shooting APP UNCG
Field Goals Made 26.9 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 65.5
Field Goal % 46.2% 38.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 39.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 13.9 8.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 11.6
Free Throw % 69.5% 72.8%
Ball Control APP UNCG
Rebounds 40.3 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 30.3 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.2
Turnovers 9.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.0
Steals 5.1 6.6
Fouls 11.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP UNCG
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 72.3
% of Possessions with APP UNCG
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 30.9%
Player Fouled 21.3% 16.0%
Turnover 13.6% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP UNCG
Shot Blocked 3.1% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 26.9%