NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP ULM
Points 83.2 61.7
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.7 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 13.9
Points From Free Throws 14.0 11.1
Shooting APP ULM
Field Goals Made 30.3 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 66.3
Field Goal % 51.7% 34.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 50.2
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 36.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 14.0 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 16.7
Free Throw % 69.5% 66.8%
Ball Control APP ULM
Rebounds 41.7 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 32.8 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 12.8
Turnovers 9.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 5.9 1.4
Steals 4.9 6.3
Fouls 12.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP ULM
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 75.8
% of Possessions with APP ULM
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 57.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 18.4%
Player Fouled 21.6% 17.7%
Turnover 13.3% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP ULM
Shot Blocked 2.2% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 28.2%