NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM UK
Points 69.4 90.6
Total Points   160.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 46.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 28.8
Points From Free Throws 11.2 15.6
Shooting MSM UK
Field Goals Made 25.3 32.7
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 63.6
Field Goal % 39.8% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 42.3%
Free Throws Made 11.2 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 20.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 78.2%
Ball Control MSM UK
Rebounds 34.3 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.8
Turnovers 13.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.0 6.3
Steals 5.4 9.5
Fouls 14.6 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM UK
Total Possessions 76.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 75.5
% of Possessions with MSM UK
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 26.3%
Player Fouled 16.8% 19.1%
Turnover 17.8% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 12.4% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM UK
Shot Blocked 10.0% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 26.6%