NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV TOWS
Points 71.9 66.1
Total Points   138.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 16.7
Points From Free Throws 16.5 12.7
Shooting XAV TOWS
Field Goals Made 24.4 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 59.8
Field Goal % 43.4% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 16.5 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 19.1
Free Throw % 75.8% 66.3%
Ball Control XAV TOWS
Rebounds 35.3 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 13.6
Turnovers 9.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.6 5.4
Steals 6.0 5.3
Fouls 13.3 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV TOWS
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 72.0
% of Possessions with XAV TOWS
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 21.6%
Player Fouled 24.4% 19.3%
Turnover 14.3% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV TOWS
Shot Blocked 9.2% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 34.6%