NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMU USF
Points 73.7 73.1
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 25.8
Points From Free Throws 13.9 15.8
Shooting SMU USF
Field Goals Made 26.4 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.2 56.8
Field Goal % 41.7% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 13.9 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 21.8
Free Throw % 68.6% 72.6%
Ball Control SMU USF
Rebounds 41.0 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 15.1 9.7
Turnovers 10.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.5
Steals 6.8 6.1
Fouls 16.5 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMU USF
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.9 69.8
% of Possessions with SMU USF
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 28.6%
Player Fouled 19.0% 23.3%
Turnover 14.2% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMU USF
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 37.7% 27.2%