NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP SMC
Points 51.3 78.8
Total Points   130.0
Points From 2-Pointers 26.6 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 13.1 19.1
Points From Free Throws 11.6 15.1
Shooting CP SMC
Field Goals Made 17.7 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 50.9 57.6
Field Goal % 34.7% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.3 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 36.0% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 13.9 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 11.6 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 22.5
Free Throw % 70.9% 67.1%
Ball Control CP SMC
Rebounds 23.2 45.4
Rebounds - Defensive 18.2 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 5.0 15.0
Turnovers 11.0 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.4
Steals 4.1 6.7
Fouls 15.5 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP SMC
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 60.0 72.1
% of Possessions with CP SMC
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 21.3%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.5%
Turnover 16.7% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP SMC
Shot Blocked 7.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 14.1% 45.2%