NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMU TLSA
Points 78.4 68.9
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 19.6
Points From Free Throws 15.3 16.8
Shooting SMU TLSA
Field Goals Made 27.8 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 53.6
Field Goal % 43.5% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 15.3 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 22.9
Free Throw % 68.6% 73.6%
Ball Control SMU TLSA
Rebounds 41.5 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 15.1 7.8
Turnovers 10.1 13.2
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.7
Steals 8.2 6.6
Fouls 16.7 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMU TLSA
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 78.0 67.5
% of Possessions with SMU TLSA
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 25.7%
Player Fouled 19.3% 22.9%
Turnover 13.8% 18.1%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMU TLSA
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 37.9% 22.8%