NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMU UCF
Points 67.2 72.1
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 20.1
Points From Free Throws 16.2 16.2
Shooting SMU UCF
Field Goals Made 22.1 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 58.2
Field Goal % 37.7% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.5% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 16.2 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 23.6
Free Throw % 68.6% 68.6%
Ball Control SMU UCF
Rebounds 36.9 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 13.3
Turnovers 11.5 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.4 7.4
Steals 6.9 7.7
Fouls 16.1 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMU UCF
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 72.9
% of Possessions with SMU UCF
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 23.2%
Player Fouled 21.1% 22.6%
Turnover 16.2% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMU UCF
Shot Blocked 13.1% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 35.5%